Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Picture

With just over 24 hours to go until the 91st Academy Awards get underway, we finally turn our attention to the biggest award of the night: Best Picture.

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Will win: Roma
Should win: Vice
Also nominated: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, A Star is Born

This could well be the most difficult race for Best Picture to call in recent years. It is a very strong selection of films that have been nominated, and the tide of opinion on who will win has ebbed and flowed throughout this awards season.

Looking purely at audience numbers, the most popular film is clearly Black Panther. The Academy was widely ridiculed when it attempted to introduce a Best Popular Film category for this year’s ceremony, and this was in large part because critics and moviegoers did not want to see a film as strong as Black Panther nominated in a token Best-of-the-Rest category. It’s a rarity for a blockbuster of this scale to be nominated for Best Picture, and it did extremely well to pick up the main prize at the recent Screen Actors Guild Awards – however, as monumental as this nomination is, it won’t be translating into a win on this occasion.

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Black Panther has defied the odds and picked up a nomination for Best Picture.

Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born are films which fall into a similar category. Both were very well-received by moviegoers and did well at the box office, but have very slim chances of scooping Best Picture. In the case of Bohemian Rhapsody, this is deserved. Despite an excellent performance from its lead actor, it is a mediocre film largely buoyed by the popularity of its soundtrack. A Star is Born, on the other hand, is a far more impressive piece of filmmaking, propelled by intelligent direction, excellent writing and inspiring lead performances. Historically, however, ‘popular’ hasn’t done well in this category. What’s more, the film is far from complimentary about the price of fame, which isn’t the sort of narrative that flatters Hollywood voters. A win for either here is unlikely.

BlacKkKlansman and The Favourite also pick up nominations in this category. Of the two, The Favourite is by far the stronger film. However, it’s very dark, very quirky, and all in all perhaps a little too zany for the Academy’s traditionally conservative taste. The Favourite‘s best chance of picking up a prize for Best Picture was at the recent BAFTA awards. That it failed to do so there speaks volumes about its chances tomorrow night. As for BlacKkKlansman, it is a far more conventional film, at least in terms of aesthetics, tone and direction. However, it is anti-establishment and unabashed in its racial and political commentary. The Academy likes to think it is becoming more open and diverse, but it has a very long way to go and in most cases it will still choose to play things safe. BlackKlansman is not a safe film, and it will not win Best Picture.

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Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman is unlikely to appeal to the Academy’s historically traditional tastes.

Green Book, on the other hand, would be a very safe choice. It’s about family, friendship, and triumphing against the odds, three of the key ingredients which appeal to Oscar voters. It’s also got great acting, great writing and great directing – there’s not much more you can ask for. However, is it Best Picture worthy? Perhaps not. It certainly is very good in almost every department, but it lacks the spectacular and falls just short of being exceptional. That said, there’s plenty of awards buzz about it and there are more than whispers of it picking up the main prize – but don’t necessarily put your house on it.

Away from the buzz, right at the peripheries of the Best Picture race, is Vice. Staunchly political though it may be, it’s perplexing that a film this brilliant has been all but ruled out as a contender. Quite simply, it is excellent. It’s assured, bold, daring and has something of value to say about the world in which we live. What’s more, it conveys that message in an extremely engaging manner, driven by superb editing, directing and lead performances. In all honesty, it probably is the best film nominated in this category, but this just isn’t its year.

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Adam McKay’s Vice is a superb film and would be a worthy winner of the Best Picture crown.

This leaves us with just one winner: Alfonso Cuarón’s almost universally-acclaimed Roma. For a long time, a win for Roma looked unlikely. After all, in its entire history, this marks only the ninth time that the Academy has nominated a non-English language film in the Best Picture category. Never has one actually won.

Similarly, a relatively recent arrival to the Hollywood scene, not once has a Netflix-produced film been nominated for Best Picture, let alone won. To win, Roma will therefore need to make history in not one but two departments. This did initially seem like too great an ask – and yet, the film has performed spectacularly well this awards season. It goes into tomorrow’s ceremony as favourite, riding a huge wave of momentum. Its win is not guaranteed by any means, but it is a very. very good piece of cinema and all the signs are pointing that way.

Roma Cinematography

In a year where the Best Picture winner is almost too close to call, Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma has emerged as the slender favourite.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Actress

In today’s post, we take a look at one of the most exciting categories in this year’s Academy Awards, as we shine a light on the actresses nominated for Best Actress.

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Will win: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Should win: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Also nominated: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Lady Gaga (A Star is Born), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

At the apex of this category is a proper clash of the titans, as two masterful performances from Olivia Colman and Glenn Close vie for the prestigious Oscar statuette. Honestly, there’s not much separating the two. Colman stars in Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite and is superb as Queen Anne. Blinkered by trauma, her character teeters on the edge of insanity, vulnerable and explosive in equal measure.

In a more restrained but equally brilliant turn, Glenn Close stars in The Wife and explores what a life lived in someone else’s shadow looks like. It’s a fabulously layered and, at times, even inscrutable performance. Piece by piece, with every passing injustice, the facade begins to crumble and the woman underneath emerges.

In truth, the only thing that separates these performances is Hollywood’s politics. As wonderful and experienced an actress as Colman may be, she’s fresh-faced in the world of Hollywood award shows. Glenn Close, on the other hand, has been nominated for an Oscar six times without winning. Quite simply, it’s her turn to win, and it’s hard to argue that she doesn’t deserve it.

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Glenn Close delivers an acting tour de force in The Wife.

The strength of Close and Colman’s performances in no way diminishes the magnificence of the other nominees in this category. It almost beggars belief that Roma marks Yalitza Aparicio’s first foray into the world of acting, so good is she at it. But its that exact lack of experience which lends a refreshing naturalism to her performance, and she absolutely deserves her moment in the limelight.

In Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Melissa McCarthy has stepped way out of her comfort zone and taken on a role which differs radically from anything she’s done before – but it’s a decision which has paid off. Though the film is essentially the story of a criminal, there’s a fragility about her performance which means you can’t help but like her.

And, of course, Lady Gaga’s performance in A Star is Born has been nothing short of revelatory. Her turn as Ally is brilliant on every level. Given Gaga’s superstardom, it’s only natural that she’s believable as the star she eventually becomes in the film, but more impressive is how wonderful she is in the quieter, more intimate moments of the film. It’s a performance underpinned by remarkable acting dexterity, and she, too, deserves high praise.

Sunday evening will undoubtedly be Glenn Close’s night, as she finally picks up her well-deserved, long-overdue Oscar. However, given the brilliant female talent on display in this category, it will also be a win for women in film.

Olivia Colman The Favourite

Olivia Colman is brilliant as the explosive Queen Anne in The Favourite.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Actor

As the Oscars draw ever closer, we now find ourselves looking at one of the ‘Big Four’ categories of the night – Best Actor.

89th Annual Academy Awards - Backstage

Will win: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Should win: Christian Bale (Vice)
Also nominated: Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

What got everybody talking about Bohemian Rhapsody was the performance at the heart of the film, which saw Rami Malek give his take on the legendary Freddie Mercury. It’s earned him most acting awards going and is almost guaranteed to bag him an Oscar on Sunday, but quite honestly it is not the best performance in this category.

The problem is not necessarily with Malek, who certainly does his best – it’s more that some people cannot be imitated. There was an innate effervescence about Mercury which can’t be copied. You’re either born with it or you’re not. Bohemian Rhapsody sees Malek make a very earnest attempt to capture it, but he doesn’t quite manage to do so. The grand finale sees Malek’s Mercury take to the stage for Queen’s iconic Live Aid performance at Wembley. It’s supposed to be a momentous, climactic scene but it ultimately falls a little flat because, frankly, the real thing was better.

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Rami Malek gives it his best as Freddie Mercury. He’ll win an Oscar for his efforts, but he falls just short of doing the great man justice.

Chasing Malek’s shadow in this category is Christian Bale, the eponymous star of Adam McKay’s Vice. If you want to see a real masterclass in impersonation, Bohemian Rhapsody is the film for you. In Vice, however, there are no impersonations. Christian Bale doesn’t play Dick Cheney, he becomes him. The physicality, the steely gaze, the simmering menace – every nuance is there, every detail is right. He is undoubtedly the more deserving recipient of the Best Actor award, but in truth his is a performance less about acting and more about total transformation.

The other nominees in this category largely serve to make up the numbers. Willem Dafoe is perhaps the most unexpected addition for his role as Vincent van Gogh in Julian Schnabel’s dire, turgid At Eternity’s Gate. Meanwhile Viggo Mortensen does a decent enough job in Green Book but is hardly at a career best. To give him credit, Bradley Cooper is genuinely very good as the world-weary Jackson Maine in A Star is Born  (and proves he can sing just as well as he can act), and this is probably the best we’ve seen him since American Sniper. But he’ll have to wait a little while yet for his Oscar. Whilst this year’s should be going to Bale, it’s heading straight for Rami Malek.

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Totally transformed: Christian Bale becomes Dick Cheney in Adam McKay’s Vice.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor is the category that we turn our attention to today. This is the first Oscar nomination for three of the nominees, whilst the other two are previous winners in this category.

89th Annual Academy Awards - Backstage

Will win: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Should win: Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Also nominated: Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliott (A Star is Born), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

The real contest in this particular category appears to be between the two actors who have triumphed in it before: Mahershala Ali and Sam Rockwell. Of the two, Ali is the favourite, though it is Rockwell who turns in the better performance.

Ali is excellent as Don Shirley in Green Book, and plays off his co-star Viggo Mortensen particularly well – however, it is a relatively measured, even one-note performance. Stoic through and through, there are a couple of scenes in which we get a glimpse of what Ali is capable of, but on balance the source material doesn’t give him much with which to flex his acting muscles. On the other hand, whilst Rockwell’s role in Vice is limited (he plays President George W. Bush to Christian Bale’s Vice-President Dick Cheney), his attention to detail is without comparison. Every mannerism and nuance of the naive and inxperienced Dubyah is present in his performance, and it’s a pleasure to watch.

PIANIST DON SHIRLEY

Mahershala Ali looks set to pick up his second win for Best Supporting Actor in just three years for his performance in Green Book.

Sam Elliott’s performance as Jackson Maine’s long-suffering older brother Bobby in A Star is Born comfortably qualifies him for the title ‘Best of the Rest’ in this category. The main plaudits for the film rightly went to Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper, just as the prize for this category will likely go to either Ali or Rockwell, but Elliott has turned in an understated and powerful performance that at least appears to have won him a new generation of fans.

Richard E. Grant’s performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me? is certainly serviceable but ventures a little too far into the realms of caricature at times. Meanwhile, as pleasing as it is that Adam Driver has finally been nominated for an Oscar, there is a nagging sense that he has been nominated for the wrong film. His turn as Flip Zimmerman in BlacKkKlansman is solid but far from a career best, and in fact he has shown more depth in films such as Silence or even Star Wars.

Sam Elliott A Star Is Born

Sam Elliott is excellent as Bobby Maine in A Star is Born, though is unlikely to win the Academy Award on this occasion.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Adapted Screenplay

In today’s post, we will be taking a look at the nominees for Best Adapted Screenplay at the upcoming 91st Academy Awards.

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Will win: BlacKkKlansman
Should win: A Star is Born
Also nominated: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Can You Ever Forgive Me?, If Beale Street Could Talk

It will probably be considered an upset if anything but BlacKkKlansman goes on to win the award for Best Adapted Screenplay – however, put simply, it is not the strongest screenplay nominated in this category. BlacKkKlansman is a fine film and its screenplay does a serviceable job, but one does have to wonder if its perceived dominance here is largely because of Spike Lee’s involvement. Lee is a brilliant director who has inexplicably failed to garner much attention from the Academy during his long and illustrious career. Given that his nominations in the Best Director and Best Picture categories this year are unlikely to yield any golden statuettes, Best Adapted Screenplay may well be the token award that rights the wrongs of Academy Awards gone by.

In truth, the more deserving winner would be Bradley Cooper, Eric Roth and Will Fetters’ screenplay for A Star is Born. It has been well documented that this is a film that has been remade numerous times throughout the years, with Cooper’s directorial debut serving as its fourth iteration. Far from retreading old ground, this is a screenplay which confidently reimagines the story for a different generation, adding layers of vibrancy  that make it feel bold and dynamic. It is no easy feat to make a story told this many times feel so fresh and relevant, and it is a great shame that it will likely go overlooked.

Whilst If Beale Street Could Talk and Can You Ever Forgive Me? both appear to have outside chances of doing well here, neither are strong enough to make waves that could rock the boat, and all the signs continue to point towards a win for BlacKkKlansman.

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BlacKkKlansman is hot favourite to win the Best Adapted Screenplay category.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Original Song, Best Original Score

Two categories which go together hand-in-hand are Best Original Song and Best Original Score. Historically, nominees in the Best Original Song category have performed before the award is presented.

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Best Original Song

Will win: Shallow (A Star is Born)
Should win: Shallow (A Star is Born)
Also nominated: All the Stars (Black Panther), I’ll Fight (RBG), The Place Where Lost Things Go (Mary Poppins Returns), When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)

Lady Gaga and Mark Ronson’s Shallow is the odds-on favourite in this category, and rightly so. It is a song of great emotional resonance and truth, a conversation between two lost souls which builds emphatically to an earth-shattering climax and expression of self.

Unlike the other nominees and their relationships with their respective films, A Star is Born could not exist without Shallow. It is the beating heart of the film, the moment around which the story is built. In the few months since its release, it has become a cultural phenomenon, and the Academy Award for Best Original Song deserves to be its crowning achievement. This one isn’t even close.

Shallow

Dazzling and powerful, Lady Gaga’s Shallow from A Star is Born looks certain to win the Academy Award for Best Original Song.

Best Original Score

Will win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Also nominated: Black Panther, Isle of Dogs, Mary Poppins Returns

Nicholas Britell’s soundtrack for If Beale Street Could Talk has steadily emerged as the favourite to win the Academy Award for Best Original Score and, although the category is far from clear-cut, it’s easy to see why. The sadness of its piano chords and its slow, aching strings are uplifted by soft melodies which affirm the film’s message. As far as competition goes, Marc Shaiman’s soundtrack to Mary Poppins Returns is the obvious choice, but Terence Blanchard’s stellar work for BlacKkKlansman is certainly worthy of merit, even though it appears to have flown under the radar this awards season.

If Beale Street Could Talk

The soundtrack to If Beale Street Could Talk has slowly emerged as favourite in the Best Original Score category.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing

With the 91st Academy Awards now less than two weeks away, over the coming few days we will be taking a look at the films that have been nominated. The ceremony has already had its fair share of controversy and, for the first time in three decades, will be held without a host. However, the golden statuette has lost none of its prestige or reverence, and each category will be as hotly contested as ever.

89th Annual Academy Awards - Backstage

Best Sound Editing

Will win: A Quiet Place
Should win: A Quiet Place
Also nominated: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Roma

As its title suggests, in first-time director John Krasinski’s debut it is silence that takes centre stage. Of course, whenever stillness is given so strong a focus, greater emphasis is always placed on what little sound does feature. Had any element been not quite right, had any note been off, the film would simply not have worked. Though the sound work on First Man and Bohemian Rhapsody will also be in close contention here, they are not as intrinsic to their films as the sparse, minimalist sound of A Quiet Place and therefore don’t quite reach the same heights.

A Quiet Place

In a film predicated on silence, it is the rare moments of sound which take the limelight.

Best Sound Mixing

Will win: A Star is Born
Should win: A Star is Born
Also nominated: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Roma

There are numerous parallels that can be drawn between A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody. Perhaps the most obvious is that, in both, pivotal moments take place on the middle of a concert stage. Bohemian Rhapsody, quite understandably, allows Freddie Mercury’s vocals to soar above a roaring Wembley crowd in its final scenes, but what A Star is Born achieves is something far more difficult and new for cinema. When Lady Gaga blasts the bridge from Shallow, or when Bradley Cooper hits the searing opening guitar notes of Black Eyes, it is a completely immersive experience. Music performances on screen are not uncommon, but feeling that you are actually there in that moment is something few films have achieved before. Without detracting from the other nominees in the slightest (the sound editing in First Man is also worthy of note), there is only one rightful winner in this category.

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The immersive sound editing of A Star is Born achieves something rarely seen (or heard) on screen before.

A Star is Born (2018) – Review

★★★★★

The story of A Star Is Born is a well-worn fixture of Hollywood lore. A star on the decline meets and falls in love with a star in her ascendency, and together they try to navigate their way through the labyrinth of his addictions, her fame, and everything in between. It is a tale that has been retold time and again, from generation to generation, by names woven into the cinematic canon – Gaynor and March, Garland and Mason, Streisand and Kristofferson. Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga are the newest pair to provide their take on this story, and in so doing have delivered a film that is truly for the ages.

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A Star is Born (2018)

As coasting rock star Jackson Maine, Cooper is superb. He is every inch the hardcore, world-weary rocker the role requires him to be, with a commanding stage presence about him that really shines through in some of his solo numbers. The film’s opening sequence, which sees Jack performing the foot-thumping Black Eyes in front of masses of adoring fans, is a particular highlight, more so because Cooper sings every word live.

However, even more impressive is the fact that Cooper manages to make his character something none of his predecessors ever managed: likeable. For all his charm (“Hey! I just wanted to take another look at you”), he is a deeply troubled individual, plagued by childhood trauma, substance abuse and progressive hearing loss. There are moments in the film where Jack says and does some truly horrible things to those he loves, yet at no point do you ever start to dislike him. Instead, it’s clear that he is very much a victim of his own demons, and the vulnerability in Cooper’s performance perfectly captures this.

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Bradley Cooper in A Star is Born.

In stark contrast to Cooper’s forlorn Jack is Lady Gaga’s Ally, the singer he meets by chance one night and whose voice he instantly falls for. Her raw talent is as undeniable as it is compelling, and jaded though she may be by years of rejection from the music industry, she gradually warms to Jack’s insistence that she share her gift with the world. It’s a staggeringly good performance from Gaga in every department. She is equally at ease sparring with co-stars Anthony Ramos (her best friend Ramon) and Andrew Dice Clay (her Sinatra-loving father) as she is carrying the heavier emotional baggage that the later chapters of the film bring, and it’s incredible to think that so natural a performance could come out of an actress making her feature film debut.

Though Gaga’s acting may be revelatory, her profoundly powerful voice has been renowned for years. Moments when she utilises both in perfect harmony are a privilege to behold. Always Remember Us This Way and I’ll Never Love Again, both penned by Gaga, are melodically, lyrically and vocally songs that rank right at the very top of her discography. However, the epicentre the film is the scene in which Ally reluctantly joins Jack on stage to sing Shallow, the song she penned and performed for him the night before. It’s a genuinely hair-raising scene in which she initially holds herself back in the wings, pinned down by her fears and insecurities, before finally marching centre-stage and into the spotlight. She looks surprised as, almost involuntarily, note after dazzling note pours out of her, much to the rapturous acclaim of the crowd in front of her. It’s electrifying, and a reminder of how moving film can be when done right.

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Lady Gaga electrifies in A Star is Born.

Although Bradley Cooper has worked with many of the industry’s directing heavyweights, A Star is Born marks his first foray into the world of directing. There are perhaps slight pacing issues and an overuse of straight-to-camera shots, but it is nevertheless a remarkably assured first offering, with loving references to the versions of the film that preceded his own.

He succeeds in capturing the energy and dynamism of live performances, and there is some seriously gorgeous cinematography employed throughout. His use of framing, both as a foreshadowing and bookending device, is also particularly effective. So strong a debut is this that it’s hard to imagine quite how he’ll top it with his next feature, whenever that may be, but it is clear that he has a very bright future behind the camera ahead of him.

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Bradley Cooper makes his directorial debut.

Though it is still early days, A Star is Born is already generating a lot of Oscar buzz. Best Original Song seems a lock, whilst nods for acting, directing and even Best Picture may yet be on the cards. Critics have argued that such accolades would not be merited given the number of times the film has been remade. However, this is perhaps best addressed by the film itself. Towards the end, Jack’s brother Bobby (Sam Elliott) remarks that all music is made up of the same twelve notes that can be found in any octave. He adds that, “All any artist can offer the world is how they see those twelve notes.” It’s an observation that also rings particularly true of A Star is Born. Whilst it’s a story that may have been told before, never has it been told better.