Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Picture

February 23, 2019February 22, 2019 / juliamc25 / Leave a comment

With just over 24 hours to go until the 91st Academy Awards get underway, we finally turn our attention to the biggest award of the night: Best Picture.

Will win: Roma
Should win: Vice
Also nominated: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, A Star is Born

This could well be the most difficult race for Best Picture to call in recent years. It is a very strong selection of films that have been nominated, and the tide of opinion on who will win has ebbed and flowed throughout this awards season.

Looking purely at audience numbers, the most popular film is clearly Black Panther. The Academy was widely ridiculed when it attempted to introduce a Best Popular Film category for this year’s ceremony, and this was in large part because critics and moviegoers did not want to see a film as strong as Black Panther nominated in a token Best-of-the-Rest category. It’s a rarity for a blockbuster of this scale to be nominated for Best Picture, and it did extremely well to pick up the main prize at the recent Screen Actors Guild Awards – however, as monumental as this nomination is, it won’t be translating into a win on this occasion.

Black Panther has defied the odds and picked up a nomination for Best Picture.

Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born are films which fall into a similar category. Both were very well-received by moviegoers and did well at the box office, but have very slim chances of scooping Best Picture. In the case of Bohemian Rhapsody, this is deserved. Despite an excellent performance from its lead actor, it is a mediocre film largely buoyed by the popularity of its soundtrack. A Star is Born, on the other hand, is a far more impressive piece of filmmaking, propelled by intelligent direction, excellent writing and inspiring lead performances. Historically, however, ‘popular’ hasn’t done well in this category. What’s more, the film is far from complimentary about the price of fame, which isn’t the sort of narrative that flatters Hollywood voters. A win for either here is unlikely.

BlacKkKlansman and The Favourite also pick up nominations in this category. Of the two, The Favourite is by far the stronger film. However, it’s very dark, very quirky, and all in all perhaps a little too zany for the Academy’s traditionally conservative taste. The Favourite‘s best chance of picking up a prize for Best Picture was at the recent BAFTA awards. That it failed to do so there speaks volumes about its chances tomorrow night. As for BlacKkKlansman, it is a far more conventional film, at least in terms of aesthetics, tone and direction. However, it is anti-establishment and unabashed in its racial and political commentary. The Academy likes to think it is becoming more open and diverse, but it has a very long way to go and in most cases it will still choose to play things safe. BlackKlansman is not a safe film, and it will not win Best Picture.

Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman is unlikely to appeal to the Academy’s historically traditional tastes.

Green Book, on the other hand, would be a very safe choice. It’s about family, friendship, and triumphing against the odds, three of the key ingredients which appeal to Oscar voters. It’s also got great acting, great writing and great directing – there’s not much more you can ask for. However, is it Best Picture worthy? Perhaps not. It certainly is very good in almost every department, but it lacks the spectacular and falls just short of being exceptional. That said, there’s plenty of awards buzz about it and there are more than whispers of it picking up the main prize – but don’t necessarily put your house on it.

Away from the buzz, right at the peripheries of the Best Picture race, is Vice. Staunchly political though it may be, it’s perplexing that a film this brilliant has been all but ruled out as a contender. Quite simply, it is excellent. It’s assured, bold, daring and has something of value to say about the world in which we live. What’s more, it conveys that message in an extremely engaging manner, driven by superb editing, directing and lead performances. In all honesty, it probably is the best film nominated in this category, but this just isn’t its year.

Adam McKay’s Vice is a superb film and would be a worthy winner of the Best Picture crown.

This leaves us with just one winner: Alfonso Cuarón’s almost universally-acclaimed Roma. For a long time, a win for Roma looked unlikely. After all, in its entire history, this marks only the ninth time that the Academy has nominated a non-English language film in the Best Picture category. Never has one actually won.

Similarly, a relatively recent arrival to the Hollywood scene, not once has a Netflix-produced film been nominated for Best Picture, let alone won. To win, Roma will therefore need to make history in not one but two departments. This did initially seem like too great an ask – and yet, the film has performed spectacularly well this awards season. It goes into tomorrow’s ceremony as favourite, riding a huge wave of momentum. Its win is not guaranteed by any means, but it is a very. very good piece of cinema and all the signs are pointing that way.

In a year where the Best Picture winner is almost too close to call, Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma has emerged as the slender favourite.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Director

February 22, 2019February 17, 2019 / juliamc25 / Leave a comment

As we edge ever closer to the big day, today we turn out attention to one of the biggest awards of the night: Best Director.

Will win: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Should win: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Also nominated: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Adam McKay (Vice)

Alfonso Cuarón is no stranger to the Oscars. He has won twice before (once for Directing, once for Editing) and his latest cinematic offering, Roma, is almost certain to pick up the awards for Best Foreign Language Film and Best Cinematography on Sunday. However, as if that weren’t enough, he is the resounding favourite to win for Best Director, too.

This is not to say that the brilliance of the other directors is not plain to see. The other four films each bear the unique and distinct stamps of their respective directors, and it’s hard to think of any other filmmakers being able to tell those stories quite so well.

Yorgos’ Lanthimos is among this year’s nominees for Best Director for his work on The Favourite.

Pawel Pawlikowski’s Cold War is gorgeously shot, a melancholy meditation on love and what could have been that deserves a larger audience than it has received so far. On the other end of the spectrum, The Favourite is classic Yorgos Lanthimos. Eccentric, dark and offbeat, it is funny and sinister in equal measure. His directorial style is not to everyone’s taste, but it certainly captures the imagination.

In BlacKkKlansman Spike Lee provides a funny but thought-provoking insight on race relations which feels more relevant than ever, whilst Adam McKay’s Vice is assured, brash, snappy and equally critical of Trump’s America and its origins.

Excellent though the directorial work on the other nominated films in this category may be, Cuarón’s delicate, understated take on life in 1970s Mexico is leagues above everything else. There’s a stillness about his work, and a patience in the storytelling, which is deeply immersive. There’s also a gentle innocence to it which makes this portrait of everyday life feel profoundly intimate and personal. The end product is a beautiful piece of cinema, and Cuarón will be a worthy second-time winner of this award.

Barring any great upset, Alfonso Cuarón looks set to pick up his second Oscar for Best Director for Roma.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Actress

February 21, 2019February 12, 2019 / juliamc25 / Leave a comment

In today’s post, we take a look at one of the most exciting categories in this year’s Academy Awards, as we shine a light on the actresses nominated for Best Actress.

Will win: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Should win: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Also nominated: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma), Olivia Colman (The Favourite), Lady Gaga (A Star is Born), Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

At the apex of this category is a proper clash of the titans, as two masterful performances from Olivia Colman and Glenn Close vie for the prestigious Oscar statuette. Honestly, there’s not much separating the two. Colman stars in Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite and is superb as Queen Anne. Blinkered by trauma, her character teeters on the edge of insanity, vulnerable and explosive in equal measure.

In a more restrained but equally brilliant turn, Glenn Close stars in The Wife and explores what a life lived in someone else’s shadow looks like. It’s a fabulously layered and, at times, even inscrutable performance. Piece by piece, with every passing injustice, the facade begins to crumble and the woman underneath emerges.

In truth, the only thing that separates these performances is Hollywood’s politics. As wonderful and experienced an actress as Colman may be, she’s fresh-faced in the world of Hollywood award shows. Glenn Close, on the other hand, has been nominated for an Oscar six times without winning. Quite simply, it’s her turn to win, and it’s hard to argue that she doesn’t deserve it.

Glenn Close delivers an acting tour de force in The Wife.

The strength of Close and Colman’s performances in no way diminishes the magnificence of the other nominees in this category. It almost beggars belief that Roma marks Yalitza Aparicio’s first foray into the world of acting, so good is she at it. But its that exact lack of experience which lends a refreshing naturalism to her performance, and she absolutely deserves her moment in the limelight.

In Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Melissa McCarthy has stepped way out of her comfort zone and taken on a role which differs radically from anything she’s done before – but it’s a decision which has paid off. Though the film is essentially the story of a criminal, there’s a fragility about her performance which means you can’t help but like her.

And, of course, Lady Gaga’s performance in A Star is Born has been nothing short of revelatory. Her turn as Ally is brilliant on every level. Given Gaga’s superstardom, it’s only natural that she’s believable as the star she eventually becomes in the film, but more impressive is how wonderful she is in the quieter, more intimate moments of the film. It’s a performance underpinned by remarkable acting dexterity, and she, too, deserves high praise.

Sunday evening will undoubtedly be Glenn Close’s night, as she finally picks up her well-deserved, long-overdue Oscar. However, given the brilliant female talent on display in this category, it will also be a win for women in film.

Olivia Colman is brilliant as the explosive Queen Anne in The Favourite.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Supporting Actress

February 19, 2019February 12, 2019 / juliamc25 / Leave a comment

Today, Pick of the Flicks takes a closer look at this year’s nominees in the category for Best Supporting Actress.

Will win: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Should win: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Also nominated: Amy Adams (Vice), Marina de Tavira (Roma), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

As far as calling favourites goes, this category is about as clear-cut as it gets. This year’s nominees have graced our screens in films about class, politicians and queens – but, really, this is all about a King, and there’s a statuette with her name on it.

Regina King plays Sharon Rivers in Barry Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk, a mother tasked with balancing the needs and well-being of her family in a society keen to see it fail. King is a fabulous actress and handles this role with poise and dignity. She does perhaps deserve more screen time than she was ultimately given in the film, but we can rest assured that the Oscar will be going to a good home.

Regina King is nominated for her excellent work in If Beale Street Could Talk, and is the clear favourite to win.

Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone have both been nominated for The Favourite, in which they play rivals vying for Queen Anne’s affections. Weisz is good, but Stone is better. Abigail is a far-cry from all her previous roles, and yet she excels. Her accent is spot on, she spars with her co-stars perfectly, and in a film which veers (at times chaotically) between drama and dark comedy she gets every single note right. In a different year the Oscar would belong to one of these two actresses.

Rounding off the nominees in this category are Marina de Tavira and Amy Adams. De Tavira is excellent in Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma, playing a woman whose family is on the brink of falling apart, but it’s not a role that was ever going to win her major awards. Similarly, even the most cursory of glances at Adams’ filmography makes demonstrably clear that she is a superb actress, and her turn as Lynne Cheney in Vice reinforces this. She will win an Oscar one day, that much is certain, but this is not her year.

Girl power: Stone and Weisz both shine in Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Original Screenplay

February 17, 2019February 17, 2019 / juliamc25 / Leave a comment

Today, we take a look at one of the most keenly-contested categories of this year’s Academy Awards: Best Original Screenplay.

Will win: Green Book
Should win: Vice
Also nominated: The Favourite, First Reformed, Roma

The winner of this year’s Best Original Screenplay category has proven to be one of the hardest to call. In any other year, almost every single one of these nominees could have been a shoo-in favourite, but this will likely be a much closer affair.

The outsider in this category is almost certainly Paul Schrader’s First Reformed. It’s baffling that this is Schrader’s first Oscar nomination, given that he has undisputed classics such as Taxi Driver, Raging Bull and The Last Temptation of Christ to his name. First Reformed is very good, but it is not quite on the same level. Schrader will have to wait a little longer for his first Oscar win.

Inexplicably, First Reformed marks the first time Paul Schrader has been nominated for an Academy Award.

Roma is a minimalist film in almost every sense, and this will likely serve it well in the directing and cinematography categories. However, the minimalism of the screenplay will likely work against it here, especially when up against the type of sharp, snappy dialogue that can be found in something like The Favourite. Equally, however, The Favourite does perhaps veer too far in the other direction. The quirkiness and eccentricity of the screenplay may well be part of the film’s charm, but could prove a bit too much for the Academy’s taste on this occasion.

The main showdown would therefore appear to be between Green Book and Vice. Truthfully, both would be deserving winners. Vice is perhaps the slightly more meritorious of the two, with its seething criticism of the current political climate (and those who helped push it in this direction), but Green Book also bears great relevancy to our time. It has the added benefit of being funny and heartwarming – two ingredients that are sure to bolster its chances.

In a year where this category feels almost too close to call, Green Book may well edge ahead of its competition for Best Original Screenplay.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Production Design, Best Film Editing, Best Cinematography

February 14, 2019February 14, 2019 / juliamc25 / Leave a comment

In today’s look at the upcoming Academy Awards, we focus on three of the more prestigious technical categories: Best Production Design, Best Film Editing and Best Cinematography. The Best Film Editing category has historically provided a good indication of what will fare well in the Best Picture category.

Best Production Design

Will win: The Favourite
Should win: The Favourite
Also nominated: Black Panther, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns, Roma

The world that Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton have created in The Favourite is deeply unpleasant (in the best possible way). It is dark, claustrophobic and disconcertingly eerie. Every corner holds secrets and all the walls have ears. It is the perfect realisation of Yorgos Lanthimos’ vision and would be a deserving winner in this category. The sprawling Wakandan paradise of Black Panther is its closest rival.

Dark and mysterious, the production design of The Favourite is the perfect realisation of director Yorgos Lanthomos’ vision.

Best Film Editing

Will win: Vice
Should win: Vice
Also nominated: BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book

A few years ago, Hank Corwin was robbed of his Academy Award when his editing for The Big Short was overlooked in favour of Mad Max: Fury Road. Three years later, he is back and nominated again for his work on another Adam McKay film. With Vice, much like The Big Short before it, the editing is fast, snappy and an integral part of the storytelling process. It moves the film along at a whirlwind pace and makes complicated themes and ideas easily digestible. This is no easy thing to do, and his Oscar will be fully deserved and long overdue.

The masterful editing of Vice is an integral part of the storytelling process.

Best Cinematography

Will win: Roma
Should win: Roma
Also nominated: Cold War, The Favourite, Never Look Away, A Star is Born

Alfonso Cuarón’s direction in Roma is noticeably understated. When the camera moves, it is with a calm and considered slowness, and shots can linger for minutes. The advantage of this, as Cuarón well knows, is that it gives the viewer ample opportunity to marvel in the beautiful black and white cinematography of the film. It is gorgeously shot, to the extent that each frame could well be a photograph. Cold War, which also happens to be shot in black and white, is probably the next-best film in this category, but it is in a quite distant second.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Foreign Language Film, Best Animated Feature Film

February 13, 2019February 10, 2019 / juliamc25 / Leave a comment

There are some real gems in two of this year’s lesser-known categories. Today we take look at the nominees for Best Foreign Language Film and Best Animated Feature Film.

Best Foreign Language Film

Will win: Roma
Should win: Roma
Also nominated: Capernaum, Cold War, Never Look Away, Shoplifters

There is no doubt whatsoever about Roma’s win in this category. Its dominance does perhaps do a slight injustice to the other nominees – with Pawel Pawlikowski’s Cold War in particular proving to be a beautifully shot gem of a film – but Alfonso Cuarón’s deeply personal, intimate tale of life in 1970s Mexico exists in a league of its own.

In no doubt: Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma is all but guaranteed to win Best Foreign Language Film.

Best Animated Feature Film

Will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Should win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Also nominated: Incredibles 2, Isle of Dogs, Mirai, Ralph Breaks the Internet.

The latest outing in the Spidey universe is a supremely confident, gorgeously animated feature that ranks among the best Spider-man films ever made. Fan service is blended with a genuinely intelligent plot that packs a real emotional punch. It’s a superb film in its own right, but the animation elevates it – quite literally – to a new dimension. A worthy runner-up would be Wes Anderson’s Isle of Dogs, which thoughtfully explores themes very relevant to today’s world. Led by an all-star cast, it’s brought to life by some of the most visually interesting animation of recent years.

When done well, animation can make good films great. With Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, it makes a great film even greater.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing

February 11, 2019February 11, 2019 / juliamc25 / Leave a comment

With the 91st Academy Awards now less than two weeks away, over the coming few days we will be taking a look at the films that have been nominated. The ceremony has already had its fair share of controversy and, for the first time in three decades, will be held without a host. However, the golden statuette has lost none of its prestige or reverence, and each category will be as hotly contested as ever.

Best Sound Editing

Will win: A Quiet Place
Should win: A Quiet Place
Also nominated: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Roma

As its title suggests, in first-time director John Krasinski’s debut it is silence that takes centre stage. Of course, whenever stillness is given so strong a focus, greater emphasis is always placed on what little sound does feature. Had any element been not quite right, had any note been off, the film would simply not have worked. Though the sound work on First Man and Bohemian Rhapsody will also be in close contention here, they are not as intrinsic to their films as the sparse, minimalist sound of A Quiet Place and therefore don’t quite reach the same heights.

In a film predicated on silence, it is the rare moments of sound which take the limelight.

Best Sound Mixing

Will win: A Star is Born
Should win: A Star is Born
Also nominated: Black Panther, Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man, Roma

There are numerous parallels that can be drawn between A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody. Perhaps the most obvious is that, in both, pivotal moments take place on the middle of a concert stage. Bohemian Rhapsody, quite understandably, allows Freddie Mercury’s vocals to soar above a roaring Wembley crowd in its final scenes, but what A Star is Born achieves is something far more difficult and new for cinema. When Lady Gaga blasts the bridge from Shallow, or when Bradley Cooper hits the searing opening guitar notes of Black Eyes, it is a completely immersive experience. Music performances on screen are not uncommon, but feeling that you are actually there in that moment is something few films have achieved before. Without detracting from the other nominees in the slightest (the sound editing in First Man is also worthy of note), there is only one rightful winner in this category.

The immersive sound editing of A Star is Born achieves something rarely seen (or heard) on screen before.