Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Picture

February 23, 2019February 22, 2019 / juliamc25 / Leave a comment

With just over 24 hours to go until the 91st Academy Awards get underway, we finally turn our attention to the biggest award of the night: Best Picture.

Will win: Roma
Should win: Vice
Also nominated: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book, A Star is Born

This could well be the most difficult race for Best Picture to call in recent years. It is a very strong selection of films that have been nominated, and the tide of opinion on who will win has ebbed and flowed throughout this awards season.

Looking purely at audience numbers, the most popular film is clearly Black Panther. The Academy was widely ridiculed when it attempted to introduce a Best Popular Film category for this year’s ceremony, and this was in large part because critics and moviegoers did not want to see a film as strong as Black Panther nominated in a token Best-of-the-Rest category. It’s a rarity for a blockbuster of this scale to be nominated for Best Picture, and it did extremely well to pick up the main prize at the recent Screen Actors Guild Awards – however, as monumental as this nomination is, it won’t be translating into a win on this occasion.

Black Panther has defied the odds and picked up a nomination for Best Picture.

Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born are films which fall into a similar category. Both were very well-received by moviegoers and did well at the box office, but have very slim chances of scooping Best Picture. In the case of Bohemian Rhapsody, this is deserved. Despite an excellent performance from its lead actor, it is a mediocre film largely buoyed by the popularity of its soundtrack. A Star is Born, on the other hand, is a far more impressive piece of filmmaking, propelled by intelligent direction, excellent writing and inspiring lead performances. Historically, however, ‘popular’ hasn’t done well in this category. What’s more, the film is far from complimentary about the price of fame, which isn’t the sort of narrative that flatters Hollywood voters. A win for either here is unlikely.

BlacKkKlansman and The Favourite also pick up nominations in this category. Of the two, The Favourite is by far the stronger film. However, it’s very dark, very quirky, and all in all perhaps a little too zany for the Academy’s traditionally conservative taste. The Favourite‘s best chance of picking up a prize for Best Picture was at the recent BAFTA awards. That it failed to do so there speaks volumes about its chances tomorrow night. As for BlacKkKlansman, it is a far more conventional film, at least in terms of aesthetics, tone and direction. However, it is anti-establishment and unabashed in its racial and political commentary. The Academy likes to think it is becoming more open and diverse, but it has a very long way to go and in most cases it will still choose to play things safe. BlackKlansman is not a safe film, and it will not win Best Picture.

Spike Lee’s BlacKkKlansman is unlikely to appeal to the Academy’s historically traditional tastes.

Green Book, on the other hand, would be a very safe choice. It’s about family, friendship, and triumphing against the odds, three of the key ingredients which appeal to Oscar voters. It’s also got great acting, great writing and great directing – there’s not much more you can ask for. However, is it Best Picture worthy? Perhaps not. It certainly is very good in almost every department, but it lacks the spectacular and falls just short of being exceptional. That said, there’s plenty of awards buzz about it and there are more than whispers of it picking up the main prize – but don’t necessarily put your house on it.

Away from the buzz, right at the peripheries of the Best Picture race, is Vice. Staunchly political though it may be, it’s perplexing that a film this brilliant has been all but ruled out as a contender. Quite simply, it is excellent. It’s assured, bold, daring and has something of value to say about the world in which we live. What’s more, it conveys that message in an extremely engaging manner, driven by superb editing, directing and lead performances. In all honesty, it probably is the best film nominated in this category, but this just isn’t its year.

Adam McKay’s Vice is a superb film and would be a worthy winner of the Best Picture crown.

This leaves us with just one winner: Alfonso Cuarón’s almost universally-acclaimed Roma. For a long time, a win for Roma looked unlikely. After all, in its entire history, this marks only the ninth time that the Academy has nominated a non-English language film in the Best Picture category. Never has one actually won.

Similarly, a relatively recent arrival to the Hollywood scene, not once has a Netflix-produced film been nominated for Best Picture, let alone won. To win, Roma will therefore need to make history in not one but two departments. This did initially seem like too great an ask – and yet, the film has performed spectacularly well this awards season. It goes into tomorrow’s ceremony as favourite, riding a huge wave of momentum. Its win is not guaranteed by any means, but it is a very. very good piece of cinema and all the signs are pointing that way.

In a year where the Best Picture winner is almost too close to call, Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma has emerged as the slender favourite.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Director

February 22, 2019February 17, 2019 / juliamc25 / Leave a comment

As we edge ever closer to the big day, today we turn out attention to one of the biggest awards of the night: Best Director.

Will win: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Should win: Alfonso Cuarón (Roma)
Also nominated: Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman), Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War), Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite), Adam McKay (Vice)

Alfonso Cuarón is no stranger to the Oscars. He has won twice before (once for Directing, once for Editing) and his latest cinematic offering, Roma, is almost certain to pick up the awards for Best Foreign Language Film and Best Cinematography on Sunday. However, as if that weren’t enough, he is the resounding favourite to win for Best Director, too.

This is not to say that the brilliance of the other directors is not plain to see. The other four films each bear the unique and distinct stamps of their respective directors, and it’s hard to think of any other filmmakers being able to tell those stories quite so well.

Yorgos’ Lanthimos is among this year’s nominees for Best Director for his work on The Favourite.

Pawel Pawlikowski’s Cold War is gorgeously shot, a melancholy meditation on love and what could have been that deserves a larger audience than it has received so far. On the other end of the spectrum, The Favourite is classic Yorgos Lanthimos. Eccentric, dark and offbeat, it is funny and sinister in equal measure. His directorial style is not to everyone’s taste, but it certainly captures the imagination.

In BlacKkKlansman Spike Lee provides a funny but thought-provoking insight on race relations which feels more relevant than ever, whilst Adam McKay’s Vice is assured, brash, snappy and equally critical of Trump’s America and its origins.

Excellent though the directorial work on the other nominated films in this category may be, Cuarón’s delicate, understated take on life in 1970s Mexico is leagues above everything else. There’s a stillness about his work, and a patience in the storytelling, which is deeply immersive. There’s also a gentle innocence to it which makes this portrait of everyday life feel profoundly intimate and personal. The end product is a beautiful piece of cinema, and Cuarón will be a worthy second-time winner of this award.

Barring any great upset, Alfonso Cuarón looks set to pick up his second Oscar for Best Director for Roma.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Actor

February 20, 2019February 20, 2019 / juliamc25 / Leave a comment

As the Oscars draw ever closer, we now find ourselves looking at one of the ‘Big Four’ categories of the night – Best Actor.

Will win: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Should win: Christian Bale (Vice)
Also nominated: Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born), Willem Dafoe (At Eternity’s Gate), Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)

What got everybody talking about Bohemian Rhapsody was the performance at the heart of the film, which saw Rami Malek give his take on the legendary Freddie Mercury. It’s earned him most acting awards going and is almost guaranteed to bag him an Oscar on Sunday, but quite honestly it is not the best performance in this category.

The problem is not necessarily with Malek, who certainly does his best – it’s more that some people cannot be imitated. There was an innate effervescence about Mercury which can’t be copied. You’re either born with it or you’re not. Bohemian Rhapsody sees Malek make a very earnest attempt to capture it, but he doesn’t quite manage to do so. The grand finale sees Malek’s Mercury take to the stage for Queen’s iconic Live Aid performance at Wembley. It’s supposed to be a momentous, climactic scene but it ultimately falls a little flat because, frankly, the real thing was better.

Rami Malek gives it his best as Freddie Mercury. He’ll win an Oscar for his efforts, but he falls just short of doing the great man justice.

Chasing Malek’s shadow in this category is Christian Bale, the eponymous star of Adam McKay’s Vice. If you want to see a real masterclass in impersonation, Bohemian Rhapsody is the film for you. In Vice, however, there are no impersonations. Christian Bale doesn’t play Dick Cheney, he becomes him. The physicality, the steely gaze, the simmering menace – every nuance is there, every detail is right. He is undoubtedly the more deserving recipient of the Best Actor award, but in truth his is a performance less about acting and more about total transformation.

The other nominees in this category largely serve to make up the numbers. Willem Dafoe is perhaps the most unexpected addition for his role as Vincent van Gogh in Julian Schnabel’s dire, turgid At Eternity’s Gate. Meanwhile Viggo Mortensen does a decent enough job in Green Book but is hardly at a career best. To give him credit, Bradley Cooper is genuinely very good as the world-weary Jackson Maine in A Star is Born (and proves he can sing just as well as he can act), and this is probably the best we’ve seen him since American Sniper. But he’ll have to wait a little while yet for his Oscar. Whilst this year’s should be going to Bale, it’s heading straight for Rami Malek.

Totally transformed: Christian Bale becomes Dick Cheney in Adam McKay’s Vice.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Supporting Actress

February 19, 2019February 12, 2019 / juliamc25 / Leave a comment

Today, Pick of the Flicks takes a closer look at this year’s nominees in the category for Best Supporting Actress.

Will win: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Should win: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Also nominated: Amy Adams (Vice), Marina de Tavira (Roma), Emma Stone (The Favourite), Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

As far as calling favourites goes, this category is about as clear-cut as it gets. This year’s nominees have graced our screens in films about class, politicians and queens – but, really, this is all about a King, and there’s a statuette with her name on it.

Regina King plays Sharon Rivers in Barry Jenkins’ If Beale Street Could Talk, a mother tasked with balancing the needs and well-being of her family in a society keen to see it fail. King is a fabulous actress and handles this role with poise and dignity. She does perhaps deserve more screen time than she was ultimately given in the film, but we can rest assured that the Oscar will be going to a good home.

Regina King is nominated for her excellent work in If Beale Street Could Talk, and is the clear favourite to win.

Rachel Weisz and Emma Stone have both been nominated for The Favourite, in which they play rivals vying for Queen Anne’s affections. Weisz is good, but Stone is better. Abigail is a far-cry from all her previous roles, and yet she excels. Her accent is spot on, she spars with her co-stars perfectly, and in a film which veers (at times chaotically) between drama and dark comedy she gets every single note right. In a different year the Oscar would belong to one of these two actresses.

Rounding off the nominees in this category are Marina de Tavira and Amy Adams. De Tavira is excellent in Alfonso Cuarón’s Roma, playing a woman whose family is on the brink of falling apart, but it’s not a role that was ever going to win her major awards. Similarly, even the most cursory of glances at Adams’ filmography makes demonstrably clear that she is a superb actress, and her turn as Lynne Cheney in Vice reinforces this. She will win an Oscar one day, that much is certain, but this is not her year.

Girl power: Stone and Weisz both shine in Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Supporting Actor

February 18, 2019February 12, 2019 / juliamc25 / Leave a comment

Best Supporting Actor is the category that we turn our attention to today. This is the first Oscar nomination for three of the nominees, whilst the other two are previous winners in this category.

Will win: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Should win: Sam Rockwell (Vice)
Also nominated: Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman), Sam Elliott (A Star is Born), Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

The real contest in this particular category appears to be between the two actors who have triumphed in it before: Mahershala Ali and Sam Rockwell. Of the two, Ali is the favourite, though it is Rockwell who turns in the better performance.

Ali is excellent as Don Shirley in Green Book, and plays off his co-star Viggo Mortensen particularly well – however, it is a relatively measured, even one-note performance. Stoic through and through, there are a couple of scenes in which we get a glimpse of what Ali is capable of, but on balance the source material doesn’t give him much with which to flex his acting muscles. On the other hand, whilst Rockwell’s role in Vice is limited (he plays President George W. Bush to Christian Bale’s Vice-President Dick Cheney), his attention to detail is without comparison. Every mannerism and nuance of the naive and inxperienced Dubyah is present in his performance, and it’s a pleasure to watch.

Mahershala Ali looks set to pick up his second win for Best Supporting Actor in just three years for his performance in Green Book.

Sam Elliott’s performance as Jackson Maine’s long-suffering older brother Bobby in A Star is Born comfortably qualifies him for the title ‘Best of the Rest’ in this category. The main plaudits for the film rightly went to Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper, just as the prize for this category will likely go to either Ali or Rockwell, but Elliott has turned in an understated and powerful performance that at least appears to have won him a new generation of fans.

Richard E. Grant’s performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me? is certainly serviceable but ventures a little too far into the realms of caricature at times. Meanwhile, as pleasing as it is that Adam Driver has finally been nominated for an Oscar, there is a nagging sense that he has been nominated for the wrong film. His turn as Flip Zimmerman in BlacKkKlansman is solid but far from a career best, and in fact he has shown more depth in films such as Silence or even Star Wars.

Sam Elliott is excellent as Bobby Maine in A Star is Born, though is unlikely to win the Academy Award on this occasion.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Original Screenplay

February 17, 2019February 17, 2019 / juliamc25 / Leave a comment

Today, we take a look at one of the most keenly-contested categories of this year’s Academy Awards: Best Original Screenplay.

Will win: Green Book
Should win: Vice
Also nominated: The Favourite, First Reformed, Roma

The winner of this year’s Best Original Screenplay category has proven to be one of the hardest to call. In any other year, almost every single one of these nominees could have been a shoo-in favourite, but this will likely be a much closer affair.

The outsider in this category is almost certainly Paul Schrader’s First Reformed. It’s baffling that this is Schrader’s first Oscar nomination, given that he has undisputed classics such as Taxi Driver, Raging Bull and The Last Temptation of Christ to his name. First Reformed is very good, but it is not quite on the same level. Schrader will have to wait a little longer for his first Oscar win.

Inexplicably, First Reformed marks the first time Paul Schrader has been nominated for an Academy Award.

Roma is a minimalist film in almost every sense, and this will likely serve it well in the directing and cinematography categories. However, the minimalism of the screenplay will likely work against it here, especially when up against the type of sharp, snappy dialogue that can be found in something like The Favourite. Equally, however, The Favourite does perhaps veer too far in the other direction. The quirkiness and eccentricity of the screenplay may well be part of the film’s charm, but could prove a bit too much for the Academy’s taste on this occasion.

The main showdown would therefore appear to be between Green Book and Vice. Truthfully, both would be deserving winners. Vice is perhaps the slightly more meritorious of the two, with its seething criticism of the current political climate (and those who helped push it in this direction), but Green Book also bears great relevancy to our time. It has the added benefit of being funny and heartwarming – two ingredients that are sure to bolster its chances.

In a year where this category feels almost too close to call, Green Book may well edge ahead of its competition for Best Original Screenplay.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Production Design, Best Film Editing, Best Cinematography

February 14, 2019February 14, 2019 / juliamc25 / Leave a comment

In today’s look at the upcoming Academy Awards, we focus on three of the more prestigious technical categories: Best Production Design, Best Film Editing and Best Cinematography. The Best Film Editing category has historically provided a good indication of what will fare well in the Best Picture category.

Best Production Design

Will win: The Favourite
Should win: The Favourite
Also nominated: Black Panther, First Man, Mary Poppins Returns, Roma

The world that Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton have created in The Favourite is deeply unpleasant (in the best possible way). It is dark, claustrophobic and disconcertingly eerie. Every corner holds secrets and all the walls have ears. It is the perfect realisation of Yorgos Lanthimos’ vision and would be a deserving winner in this category. The sprawling Wakandan paradise of Black Panther is its closest rival.

Dark and mysterious, the production design of The Favourite is the perfect realisation of director Yorgos Lanthomos’ vision.

Best Film Editing

Will win: Vice
Should win: Vice
Also nominated: BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Favourite, Green Book

A few years ago, Hank Corwin was robbed of his Academy Award when his editing for The Big Short was overlooked in favour of Mad Max: Fury Road. Three years later, he is back and nominated again for his work on another Adam McKay film. With Vice, much like The Big Short before it, the editing is fast, snappy and an integral part of the storytelling process. It moves the film along at a whirlwind pace and makes complicated themes and ideas easily digestible. This is no easy thing to do, and his Oscar will be fully deserved and long overdue.

The masterful editing of Vice is an integral part of the storytelling process.

Best Cinematography

Will win: Roma
Should win: Roma
Also nominated: Cold War, The Favourite, Never Look Away, A Star is Born

Alfonso Cuarón’s direction in Roma is noticeably understated. When the camera moves, it is with a calm and considered slowness, and shots can linger for minutes. The advantage of this, as Cuarón well knows, is that it gives the viewer ample opportunity to marvel in the beautiful black and white cinematography of the film. It is gorgeously shot, to the extent that each frame could well be a photograph. Cold War, which also happens to be shot in black and white, is probably the next-best film in this category, but it is in a quite distant second.

Oscars 2019 Predictions – Best Makeup and Hairstyling, Best Costume Design

February 12, 2019February 10, 2019 / juliamc25 / Leave a comment

In today’s Oscar prediction post, we take a look at two technical categories that have always been closely linked.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Will win: Vice
Should win: Vice
Also nominated: Border, Mary Queen of Scots

Christian Bale has undergone a lot of transformations over the years for the sake of his craft, but none are as impressive as his metamorphosis into the much maligned former-Vice President Dick Cheney in Adam McKay’s Vice. What Greg Cannom, Kate Biscoe and Patricia Dehaney have achieved here is truly remarkable. They have allowed Bale, Sam Rockwell (as President George W. Bush), Amy Adams (as Lynne Cheney), Steve Carell (as Donald Rumsfeld) et al. to utterly inhabit and become their characters in what is undoubtedly some of the best makeup and hairstyling work that has been seen in recent years.

Christian Bale undergoes a total transformation in Vice. Unrecognisable as himself, he is instantly recognisable as the menacing Dick Cheney.

Best Costume Design

Will win: The Favourite
Should win: The Favourite
Also nominated: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Black Panther, Mary Poppins Returns, Mary Queen of Scots

Sandy Powell is no stranger to the Academy Awards. She already has three to her name and has even been nominated twice in this category this year, which is great testament to her dominance in this field. However, that’s not to say she doesn’t face tough opposition; Ruth E. Carter’s costumes for Black Panther have become iconic since the film hit our screens, and there’s a powerful opulence about Alexandra Byrne’s work on Mary Queen of Scots. But there is no competing against the glorious, extravagant Sandy Powell creations that can be seen in The Favourite.

Sandy Powell’s work on The Favourite is hotly tipped to pick up an Academy Award later this month.